At least four parties will be battling to surpass the 1% threshold in the June 9 elections to secure state subsidies in a new political deal-making. They have no chance of passing the 4% barrier needed to enter the National Assembly, but they hope to receive 8 BGN per vote until the next parliamentary elections, which may be in four years.
Former interim Prime Minister Stefan Yanev is leading "Bulgarian Rise" for the third time in parliamentary elections. In 2022, he entered a coalition with ABV (Rumen Petkov's party), but in the 2023 elections, he barely reached 3%. The local elections in October showed that support for "Bulgarian Rise" has drastically declined, with sociologists predicting no more than 2% of the vote for them, according to "Filter."
However, Yanev’s party is now running independently and is almost certain to receive state subsidies. Any coalition failing to reach 4% is excluded from subsidy funding.
Unlike the declining "Rise," their competitors in the conservative and nationalist vote, VMRO, are uncertain about reaching even 1%. In the last elections, Krasimir Karakachanov’s party did not participate, and in 2022 they gathered only 0.81%. At that time, the party was led by three of the leader's deputies, but now Karakachanov has returned to his post.
The "Green Movement" also stands a strong chance of receiving subsidies. They were part of "Democratic Bulgaria" but left the coalition due to disagreements with the business corporation "We Continue the Change." The movement now includes disillusioned politicians like Toma Belev, Borislav Sandov, and Hristo Dunchev, who are leading their candidate lists. The "Greens" are aiming to attract many disappointed voters from PP-DB who disagreed with the coalition's policies.
"Unity," led by former MP and Deputy Minister of Agriculture Ivan Hristanov, is also targeting the 1% subsidy threshold, with their sights set on future elections.
Other formations, which sociologists predict will surpass 1%, are associations and coalitions not eligible for state subsidies. These include "Solidarity Bulgaria" led by Maya Manolova and Vanya Grigorova, "Center" led by Vasil Bozhkov, and "Blue Bulgaria," which includes several right-wing parties.
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